Probolsky Research: Prop 64 (Legalizing Marijuana) Poised to Win in November (61.8% Say They Will Vote Yes)

California's likely voters appear poised to pass Proposition 64 to legalize recreational marijuana.

The 61.8% who say they will vote yes, in favor of Prop 64 reflects a modest increase since we last tested the issue in February of this year.

Moreover, support appears relatively enthusiastic, with a plurality (44.7%) saying they will definitely vote yes, in favor of the proposition.

Methodology: From Friday, August 5 through Monday, August 8, 2016, Probolsky Research conducted a telephone survey of likely November, 2016 General Election voters throughout the state of California.

A total of 1,020 voters were called. A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-3.1% with a confidence level of 95%. Interviews were conducted with voters on both landline and mobile phones (59.4% were completed on mobile phones) and were offered in English and Spanish languages.

Our turnout universe (PDI Universe 16P8) consisted of: [(Voted at least 1 of 6/14 or 11/14), Or (Voted at least 2 of 2/08, 6/08, 11/08, 6/10, 11/10, 6/12 or 11/12), Or (Registered since 11/14), Or (PAV Registered since 6/12 & Voted 11/12)] & to qualify for universe all voters had to have voted on 11/12, in 2014 or 2015, or any Reg. since 11/14. This represents 13,943,992 voters (77.6% turnout) and 8,286,570 households (83.5%)

Our sample was developed from voter files originally compiled by county Registrars of Voters. Likelihood to vote was determined based on past voting behavior. Probolsky Research applies a stratified random sampling methodology to our sample design. In other words, we ensure that the demographic proportions of survey respondents match the demographic composition of the universe being researched.


Full Presentation:
California Statewide Voter Survey – Prop 64 (Recreational Marijuana) – Presentation

Full Report:
California Statewide Voter Survey – Prop 64 (Recreational Marijuana) – Report on Results

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